Lockdown seems to have worked. The number of deaths per day has declined since a high point of 600 a day of the beginning of April.
In fact, numbers crunched by the official statistics institute, Insee, show we have now reached a lower death rate for all causes than in 2018 and 2019, as this fascinating thread from British journalist John Lichfield shows:
New stats on “all deaths” in France since 1 March have just been published by the stats agency, INSEE. They now go up to 4 May. They show (see graph) that since circa 1 May, daily mortality from all causes in 2020 (yellow line) has been BELOW 2018 and 2019 (red and blue) 1/10 pic.twitter.com/rd1XpBrULM
— John Lichfield (@john_lichfield) May 15, 2020
At least two causes of death have declined because of lockdown – traffic accidents, down 55% in April to 103, and air pollution, largely due to reduction in road and air traffic, since highly toxic pollution by chemical fertilisers and, earlier in the year, wood-burning stoves, has continued.
There are undoubtedly other factors that should be taken into account and the long-term effects of confinement, for example on mental health and poverty, have yet to become clear.
The Insee figures, unlike the current government figures, include an estimate of deaths at home.
The number of admissions to hospital and patients in intensive care, a better indication of the number of infections today, continues to fall.
Five days after the end of lockdown, there has been no resurgence of the virus. But the weekend will be a new test, in particular of how people observe social distancing in public places.
Having championed the wearing of masks, I think I have detected a downside. Some people wearing them seem to think they are sufficiently protected to be able to dispense with social distancing.
Several French mayors have declared face-masks compulsory in all public spaces.
The rulings are likely to be overturned. The Conseil d’Etat has already ruled that the mayors are exceeding their powers in this respect.
On the phone to my brother Peter yesterday, I found he was joining other parents in indulging in the French habit of bending the rules by allowing his daughter, Rita, to play on the grass in the courtyard of the Paris block of flats where they live.
That lawn-consciousness reminded us of the age of the park police – uniformed functionaries who used to blow a whistle and gesticulate at you if you sat on the grass in public spaces. They seem to have been abolished a few years ago. These days Parisians can park their elegant arses in green spaces without fear of reprimand or fines.
Why did they exist?
Is it because France is partly a Mediterranean country and so grass needs protection in the drier parts of the country?
Is it because of the concept of the hypercivilised jardin à la française, a delicate creation for aristocrats to admire without being troubled by plebs littering the lawns?
Or is it a legacy of Bonapartism-Gaullism, a state that enrols part of the population in policing their fellow citizens, like the legendarily nosy Paris concierges who were widely believed to enjoy close relations with the police?
France’s Covid-19 death toll now officially stands at 27,529, up 104 in the last 24 hours. 60,448 people have been discharged from hospital, 843 yesterday. The number of patients in intensive care fell by 96. The government’s website has not updated the other figures I usually give.
