The curve is beginning to flatten in France, it seems. That is to say that the rise in numbers of Covid-19 cases admitted to hospital is beginning to go down, as is the rise in the number in intensive care.
Here’s the evolution of hospital admissions over the last seven days, plus intensive care (IC) admissions, courtesy of the Guardian.
05/04: +748 (+140 in IC)
04/04: +711 (+176 in IC)
03/04: +1,186 (+263 in IC)
02/04: +1,607 (+382 in IC)
01/04: +1,882 (+452 in IC)
31/03: +1,749 (+458 in IC)
30/03: +1,654 (+475 in IC)
29/03: +1,734 (+359 in IC)
So the lockdown appears to be working, despite the lack of masks, tests and other essentials.
This also seems to be the case in Italy and Spain, which have been worse hit than France.
Of course, this could be a blip. And public perception of a let-up could have its own dangers. We could mistake a glimmer of hope for the end of the crisis and all be so relieved that we drop our guard. That will also be the challenge of the après-confinement.
And, judging by reports of Parisians going out to enjoy the sunshine this weekend, familiarity with life during an epidemic is in danger of breeding a certain complacency.
Some bureaucrats don’t seem to have learnt that health service cuts cost lives.
The official responsible for health services in Lorraine confirmed on Saturday that plans to close 174 beds and shed 598 jobs at the university hospital in Nancy over the next five years.
There’s “no reason to rethink” the plan, Christophe Lannelongue told L’Est Républican, leading several local politicians to slam his statement as “indecent” and the proposal as “unsustainable”.
The project, which relies on expanding outpatient surgery and centralising hospital facilities, will be reexamined in June, so there’s hope.
I phoned the doctor today to try to get Mum’s prescription for dietary supplements and some preventive medicines renewed. He is “replaced” by a colleague until 10 April, so I fear he has caught the virus, like so many health professionals.
The health minister has said we can still use outdated prescriptions for the moment, so I will try that.
France’s recorded death toll from Covid-19 now stands at 5,889 in hospitals, 357 in the last 24 hours, plus 2,189 in care homes, 161 in 24 hours. 28,891 people have been hospitalised, up 748, 6,978 of them in intensive care, a rise of 140. 16,183 people have been discharged from hospital, 743 in the last 24 hours.