Tag Archives: Economy

Coronavirus diary day 74 – France relaxes anti-Covid fight despite the spitters and litterbugs

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It will be back to nearly normal for most of France next Tuesday but Parisians will have to drink their coffees en terrasse and wait a while before they can go to the gym, the theatre or Disneyland. Meanwhile, the government suspects us of having squirreled away too much money during lockdown and wants us to spend it for the sake of the economy.

You wouldn’t think posters asking people not to throw masks, gloves and paper hankies on the ground during an epidemic would be necessary, would you?

“We protect you not the pavement”, poster in Champigny Photo: Tony Cross

But apparently some people can’t even make it to a rubbish bin just one step away.

Street scene, Saint Maur des Fossés Photo: Tony Cross

Then again, some people around here spit in the street. Not best practice.

Despite the health and safety delinquents’ best efforts, we seem to be making progress fighting the virus. The Ile-de-France region around Paris is out of the red and into the orange and the rest of the country is green for go, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe told us yesterday as he announced phase 2 of déconfinement.

Here are some of the measures he outlined:

  • Numbers in schools will be limited throughout the country, above all in the Paris region. Parents who have had enough of their kids during lockdown will be able to enjoy a certain liberty in the summer – colonies de vacances (holiday camps) can reopen.
  • Happy couples can trip to the mairie for civil marriages, although probably with a restricted number of guests. The number of people attending a funeral remains limited to 20.
  • Museums and art galleries will reopen throughout the country but visitors will have wear masks. There are some quite pretty patterns out on the street, mind, so perhaps it will add to the aesthetic experience.
  • Beaches and watersports centres will reopen. While theatres, amusement parks, gyms and swimming pools will be in business again in the green zone, they will remain closed until 22 June in the Paris region.
  • Restaurants and bars will reopen in the green zone but we will only be able to drink or dine out front in the Paris region.
  • Discos and casinos are “discouraged” until 21 June, which, given the news of new clusters among clubbers in South Korea, seems like a good idea.
  • Cinemas will remain closed until 22 June, the operators having insisted that they should all reopen at the same time.
  • Travel will be possible all over France,the 100km limit on journeys being abolished even for potentially toxic Parisians.
  • The controversial Stop-Covid tracking device will be open to voluntary subscription from 2 June. Some opposition parties believe it is a foot in the door for the surveillance state. The right-wing Républicains couldn’t agree among themselves and voted for in the lower house and against in the Senate. Macronist orators appealed to parliamentarians’ patriotism, boasting that they weren’t using apps made by Californian big-tech, like the Germans, but had commissioned a French version, like the Brits, the only other Europeans to have their own nukes, as one minister pointed out.

Spend! Spend! Spend! is today’s message from the government.

Consumer spending is down by a third and the authorities don’t approve.

Despite unemployment soaring to 20%, they believe there are 60 billion euros we would have spent, had we not been confined to our homes, stuffed under our collective mattress.

The call will be a disappointment to the celebs and scientists who signed an appeal to dial back on consumerism in the aftermath of the epidemic. Some of the signatories raised eyebrows, given that they do ads for companies like Lancôme (Juliette Binoche, Penelope Cruz), Dior (Marion Cotillard, Isabelle Adjani), Chanel (Vanessa Paradis), Armani (Cate Blanchett), Versace, H&M, Dolce & Gabbana (Madonna) or Kia and American Express (Robert de Niro).

France’s Covid-19 death toll now officially stands at 28,662, 66 yesterday. 15,208 people are in hospital, down 472 in 24 hours, with 1,429 in intensive care, down 72. 67,191 patients have been discharged from hospital, 607 of them yesterday.

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Coronavirus diary day 72 – War of the masks: Covid-19 weaponised in council election campaigns

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The River Marne from the Pont du Petit Parc between Joinville-le-Pont and Saint-Maur-des-Fossés Photo: Tony Cross

Afternoons on the river Marne are pretty busy these days – teenagers canoeing or sitting on the banks smoking dope, a young woman playing her mandolin while being filmed (I think that should be available on social media by now), fishermen, boules players, sunbathers and walkers, not all respecting social distances and not all wearing masks.

The market has been at the centre of a war of the masks this week.

It pitches the Communist Party (PCF) against the mainstream right’s candidate for mayor, Laurent Jeanne He hopes to dislodge the left in the second round of council elections, currently in a state of suffragium interruptum (I think I got the Latin right) due to the epidemic.

Last Friday, Jeanne, who is a regional councillor, was joined by a team of his supporters in handing out masks provided by the regional authority at the entrance to the market.

The PCF claims he told punters that he has taken the initiative because “the town council is doing nothing”. It has in fact distributed 70,000 masks – two per household – in our letterboxes, set up an improvised medical centre in a gym and distributed over 3,000 food parcels.

Jeanne denies uttering any such slander and claims that the mayor, Christian Fautré, ignored an invitation to join him on Friday’s distribution, preferring to hand out leaflets at another market.

The local opposition parties have accused Fautré and friends of hogging the anti-virus spotlight, rather than observing a local-level union sacré against the epidemic. That appears to be true and to have caused some dissent in the current majority’s ranks.

The left-wing list led by the PCF, which is fighting to keep hold of the mayor’s position, won 34.92% of the vote in the first round of local elections, while the right-wingers came out in front with 39.76%.

Which might explain why the battle for credit in the anti-Covid fight is so intense.

Renault is planning to lose 5,000 jobs by natural wastage, according to Le Figaro.

This is despite the government’s announcement of an aid package, which pushed up the company’s value on the Paris Bourse by 17% this morning.

An announcement that the carmaker, which was privatised in 1990 and is now 15% state-owned, aims to save two billion euros and close some plants in France prompted the Macron government to promise aid on condition that production is transferred to electric and hybrid cars and there is more production in Europe.

No mention of public transport.

Having suffered badly during lockdown, clothes shops have announced that more than 14,000 jobs could go.

French “growth” in the first quarter of 2020, Source: Insee

France’s economic activity is estimated to have slumped 21% during the Covid crisis, according to national statistics institute Insee. That’s actually an improvement on the 33% estimate on 7 May and Insee reports some recovery in companies’ morale, which hit rock bottom last month, but not in consumer confidence.

There has been some confusion over the national Covid-19 statistics, almost certainly because of the correction of inaccurate figures on deaths given by care homes.

But the general trend is good – fewer cases reported, less pressure on the hospitals and numbers in intensive care down.

France’s Covid-19 death toll now officially stands at 28,530, 73 in the past 24 hours. 16,264 people are in hospital, down 534, with 1,555 in intensive care, down 54. 65,879 patients have been discharged from hospital, 680 of them yesterday.

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Coronavirus diary day 53 – Macron’s haste to revive economy may mean less speed in beating Covid-19

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What’s striking about the plan to end France’s lockdown is how little constraint there is – especially on employers. This does not bode well for the brave new world we’ve been promised when the epidemic is over.

The Paris region is the worst hit by Covid-19. It’s also the most important for the economy, producing 30% of GDP. There is clearly a certain amount of haste to get people back to work, despite the clear danger of a second wave in one of the most densely populated parts of the world.

With cinemas, theatres, bars and restaurants still closed, the place you’re most likely to pick up the virus is on public transport. That will be up and running at 75% capacity on Monday, according to the people who run the Ile de France network.

Passengers will only be able to use every other seat and will have to wear face masks. In rush hour, 5.30 to 9.30 in the morning and from 15.30 to 19.30, you will only be allowed to ride the rails if you are on your way to work and can prove it with a declaration from your employer.

The government has appealed to people to keep working from home. Perhaps some employers are saving money on energy and maintenance, but won’t many of them put pressure on their workers to come to work? How many employees will feel able to resist such pressure and what protection do they have, if they do?

Many people are itching to leave home, inclined to confuse the end of lockdown with the end of the risk to their health and the virus is still out there, looking for people to infect.

I fear there will be packed métro and suburban trains on Monday, bringing the risk of a second wave.

The economy is in recession, companies are going out of business and jobs are being lost. Macron has promised a more socially and ecologically responsible country when the epidemic is over.

But a green economy won’t grow itself. This can’t be left to the invisible hand of the market. Instead of handing out unconditional aid to airlines and other big polluters, the state must syphon money from the industries that threaten our future into industries that are socially and environmentally responsible. And, if it wants to avoid a Gilets Jaunes-type backlash, it must guarantee jobs with equivalent pay and conditions to workers laid off because of the changes.

Capital will resist such action with cries of dirigisme and authoritarianism. I don’t see Macron, or any of our other present world leaders, facing down that pressure, do you?

France’s Covid-19 death toll now officially stands at 25,987, up 178 in the past 24 hours. 23,208 people are in hospital, down 775 yesterday, with 2,961 in intensive care, down 775. 55,027 people have been discharged from hospital.

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Coronavirus diary day 45 – Happy locked-down birthday, Mother!

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It’s Mum’s 96th birthday. She agreed that’s a pretty impressive accomplishment, once I had reminded her that it was her birthday and how old she was. We’ve made it through the epidemic so far, so that’s another accomplishment. Coming out of lockdown and a second wave, if it comes, will bring other challenges.

Mum in the courtyard earlier this month (when it was sunny)

I’ve promised we’ll open a good bottle this evening. “Peter [my brother] will have to come and share it,” she said. Another reminder: “He can’t, because we’re locked down because of the virus.”

The memory is going. I’ve given up rehearsing the anti-Covid precautions with her. Even if she remembers them, she ignores them. “You should wash your hands for 20 seconds!” “I don’t know how long 20 seconds is.” “Don’t take your teeth out unless you’ve washed your hands first.” She looks at me like a naughty schoolkid: “You weren’t supposed to see that.”

So both of us staying well means me being extra-careful not to bring the virus into the house. Unpacking the shopping is especially tedious but I expect you all know that by now.

Mum also has macular degeneration, which has been gradually depriving her of her eyesight for over 15 years. Eating is a chore now because she can hardly see what’s on her plate, meaning that she often puts an almost-empty fork to her mouth. She’s too proud to use a spoon.

She has survived my Dad by a bit more than 10 years now. I moved to Champigny so that she could move in. I couldn’t have afforded a two-bedroom home in Paris itself.

Despite her memory and eyesight problems, I think she’s fairly happy here.

It’s an ill wind that blows no good. The fall in air pollution due to lockdown has saved 11,000 lives, the recently established Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Creca) estimates. Given the epidemic’s death toll, this is a bit of a win-some-lose-some situation but it could lead to more responsible environmental policies after it’s over. Or is that too much to hope?

“Other avoided health impacts include 1.3 million fewer days of work absence, 6,000 fewer new cases of asthma in children, 1,900 avoided emergency room visits due to asthma attacks and 600 fewer preterm births,” Creca tells us, although, as one imagines they have noticed, there’s more win-some-lose-some so far as days off work are concerned.

The study actually puts the number of lives saved as between 7,000 and 21,000.

The reason is a fall of 40% in nitrogen dioxide emissions and of 10% in fine particle emissions. That’s because of drastic cuts in consumption of energy produced by coal and oil burning, as well as a reduction in road traffic.

If I understand the science, fine particle pollution has fallen less than nitrogen dioxide because of agriculture and wood-burning. Another study shows that halving the use of ammonia in farming – which was responsible that bucolic smell that has wafted over Paris at times during lockdown – could reduce early deaths from air pollution in Europe by 20%.

Lockdown has inspired some major cities to adopt more ambitious environmental policies. Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo has in the past been vilified by the right because of her moves to clear cars from the city centre.

Last year’s transport strikes reportedly changed some right-wing voters’ minds about the virtues of cycling. Maybe lockdown-induced blue skies will convince more people that we can’t go back to breathing filthy air.

The French government has promised 20 million euros to encourage bike riding once lockdown is over. As one of the few people in the world who never learnt to ride a bike, I have mixed feelings about this. It will definitely increase my chances of being mown down by a wannabe Tour de France winner while I’m strolling the city streets.

These photos of empty city streets. Am I the only one to be singularly unimpressed by them?

Didn’t any of you ever go out early in the morning or on public holidays?

I have one vivid memory of riding a bus through the Louvre – the complex not the museum – on my way to work one Christmas morning. Nobody there. But I did see one or two intrepid Japanese tourists elsewhere in the city.

Back to the bad news. France’s GDP fell 5.8% in the first quarter of 2020, the biggest fall since 1949, greater even that the 5.3% decline called by the strikes in the second quarter of 1968. The period includes the first fortnight of lockdown, so this quarter will be equally grim, if not worse.

The eurozone’s GDP has fallen 3.8%.

France’s unemployment rose a record 7.1% in March. Household spending was down 17.9%.

The health state of emergency is set to be extended for another two months.

France’s Covid-19 death toll is now officially 24,087, up 427 in 24 hours. 26,834 Covid-19 patients are in hospital, down 650 in 24 hours, with 4,207 in intensive care, down 180. 48,228 people have been discharged from hospital, 1,342 of them yesterday.

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